Your 7% assumption is in line with historical UK benchmarks
Long-run real returns (after inflation) for UK investors, based on 125 years of market data:
| Asset class | Real return (1900–2024) | Nominal (at 3% inflation) |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE All-Share (UK equity) | 5.5% | ~8.5% |
| S&P 500 (GBP-adjusted) | 7.0% | ~10.0% |
| UK Gilts (bonds) | 1.2% | ~4.2% |
| UK 60/40 balanced portfolio | ~4.0% | ~7.0% |